Opinions and insights from real estate broker Rick Bosl

All day, every day, conforming and FHA mortgage rates are in flux.  Rates move in response to hundreds of factors which exact varying levels of influence.

Among the biggest influences on mortgage rates is inflation.  When inflation is unexpectedly high, mortgage rates tend to rise quickly. Conversely, when inflation is unexpectedly low, rates tend to fall quickly.

But what is inflation?

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.10.

As consumers, we recognize inflation by the items we buy on a daily basis becoming more expensive.  However, it’s not that goods are more expensive — it’s that the dollars we’re using to buy them have become worth less.

With respect to mortgage rates, this is a big deal because mortgage rates are directly related to the price of a special type of bond called a mortgage-backed bond.

On Wall Street, mortgage-backed bonds are priced, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars so as inflation renders those dollars less valuable, so it does to mortgage-backed bonds as well. It’s a chain reaction by which mortgage bonds lose value, leading investors sell them, causing bond prices to fall on the excess supply.

And, because mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices, as inflation takes hold, mortgage rates rise.

Lately, inflation has been exceptionally low. The Federal Reserve acknowledged as much in its last statement to the markets, and available data backs that position.  This, after predictions that inflation would be “runaway” in 2010.

The Cost of Living is up just modestly this year and it’s helping mortgage rates stay low. And, so long as it lasts, the cost of owning a home will remain relatively inexpensive.

Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random.  There’s a reason this is happening, however.

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar.  Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar “buys less” at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation’s impact is more immediate.  Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders.

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall.

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices.  Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

1. Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations
2. Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row
3. The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors — plus a few others — are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios.  As a result, they’re selling their mortgage bond positions and it’s driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent.  We can’t know for sure.  What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment’s notice.  Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Thanks for reading the ArlingtonCondo Blog

Posted by: Rick Bosl, Associate Broker

Keller Williams Realty – Arlington