Opinions and insights from real estate broker Rick Bosl

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Lately, I’ve been working with a number of buyers that are all feeling the same sense of frustration with the lack of available condos for sale. They are pre-approved, ready to buy and know what they want, but it is just not out there. Or in few cases, they find a place they like only to find themselves competing with 2 or 3 other buyers. You would think it is 2005 again. The frustration can be even more acute in the Rosslyn-Courthouse-Clarendon-Virginia Square-Ballston corridor.

The national real estate news gives a distorted picture of reality for many people since real estate is such a local market. A national real estate market forecast is about useful as a national weather forecast giving an average temperature for the nation. Whereas other parts of the country report a glut of homes for sale, Arlington and other parts of DC Metro area are just the opposite. Take a look at some market stats for Arlington:

The number of active listings per month is roughly 25% lower than it was in ’07 and ’08. Compounding the issue is that there is very little new construction for sale. When there is a number of new buildings for sale, the actual available inventory is higher since not all available units appear in the multiple listing service.

In real estate, inventory is often measured in months it would take to sell off the current inventory based on the average sales rate. At the peak of the market in 2005-2006,  inventory was down to one month’s supply. A balanced market is 5-6 months supply and 10 months or more would be considered a buyer market because there is so much on the market and weak demand, the buyer can be choosy and more aggressive in their offers.

In the Arlington condo market, the supply is around 3 months and has been in the 3-4 month supply range for the past few years. This is in stark contrast to some other weaker markets across the country, such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Sacramento and Miami, where inventory supply is measured in years rather than months.

For my buyer clients with specific needs, I’ve resorted to a direct mail campaign to specific condo buildings. Finding a seller before the condo is listed to the public, is the best way to avoid competing offers and can be a great transaction for all the parties.

Arlington has some of the premier views of our nation’s capital and people will pay top dollar for one. Here is my list of the best condo views.

1. Prospect House – Not the newest building on the block, but the views are timeless.
2. Waterview – One of the newest buildings in Rosslyn; great rooftop terrace.
3. Turnberry Tower – The newest building in Rosslyn; upper floor balconies have fab views.
4. The Odyssey – The best rooftop terrace in Arlington.
5. The Representative – Sweeping views of the city.
6. The Weslie – The movie ‘Charlie Wilson’s War’ had some scenes shot here. Awesome views from this boutique, high end building.
7. Woodbury Heights – Some owners lost their view when the Palantine was built, but some still have a one of a kind view.
8. Clarendon1021 – Units on the 7th floor and higher on the eastern side have the view. Everyone enjoys the view from the rooftop pool.
9. The Bella Vista – Panoramic views from the upper floors.
10. Liberty Center – The only building in Ballston to make the list. Great rooftop terrace.

Agree? Disagree? Tweet your opinion to @TheCondoHub.

So you just started your condo search and recently found a place you want to write an offer on. How much do I offer? That is one of the most frequent questions I get asked and it is one area as a condo specialist where I can bring a lot of value.

If you think coming up with an offering price is as simple as taking 3% off the list price, you are wrong. There are many things to consider when determining an offering price. Here are a few:

• Comparable sales: This is probably one of the more important criteria to consider. What are similar units selling for? Of course, interpreting the past sales can be part art and part science since no two properties are identical. In some buildings, a one floor difference can be the difference between a monument view or a view into another building.
• Comparable non-sales: Just as important as what is selling, is what is not selling. Withdrawn or expired listings can shed some light on the high end of the range.
• Days on Market: Let’s face it.  If a listing just came on the market, the seller is not ready to slash the price. If it has been on the market several months, the seller might start to realize it is probably over-priced.
• Competition: Are there many similar units on sale in the same building? If so, you can play them against each other. On the flip side, if it is the only one on the market, that will add to its value.
• Is it vacant?: Nobody likes paying on two mortgages.
• Lifestyle changes: Look for signs of a lifestyle change. Is there a baby on the way? That 1BR condo might get a little crowded quickly.
• Other offers: I always check with the listing agent to see if there are any other offers on the table. If there are, that is no time to low ball. Go in strong with a good offer.
• Assessed value: I look at the assessed value, but don’t give too much weight to it unless there is a wide discrepancy.
• What did the owner pay for it? Although what the current owner paid for the home is not relevant to today’s value, sometimes it does affect how much the seller will negotiate.
• Buyer urgency: Does my buyer client need a place quickly? Then it is no time for a long drawn out process.
• Other terms: Although price is usually the most important term in the offer, there are some situations where other terms take on a greater value. Is the seller moving across the country, but wants to get the place sold before giving notice at work? If so, a seller rent-back for a few weeks could be extremely valuable.
• Investor criteria: Investors look at properties differently than owner occupants. Less emotion and more number crunching. Good investors will stick to their criteria (cash flow, ROI, payback period, etc) and base their offer on that. If the numbers don’t work, they move on.

Every transaction has different circumstances and there are always a number of factors to consider. There is no ‘one size fits all’ strategy that works. I’ve listed a few things to consider above, but there are many more.

What are some of the things you consider when making an offer?