Opinions and insights from real estate broker Rick Bosl

Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.

According to the Commerce Department’s report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.

This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.

Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true.  Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month.  However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:

1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
3. “Apartment Building” Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)

The press tends to lump all 3 together but that’s not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers. 

2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too.  Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country’s housing stock.

Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months. 

Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.

With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.

Posted by Rick Bosl on March 18, 2010 | Tags: Housing Starts

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen” and that the jobs markets “is stabilizing”.  It also said that business spending has “has risen significantly”.

This is a slight departure from the Fed’s January statement in which housing was not mentioned and business spending was said to be “picking up”.

It’s also the sixth straight statement from the FOMC in which the Fed described the economy with optimism.  This is a signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning.

The economy is not without threats, however, and the Fed identified several:

1. High unemployment threatens consumer spending
2. Housing starts are at a “depressed level”
3. Consumer credit remains tight

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation is within tolerance limits

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to end its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010. Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program lowered mortgage rates by 1 percent since its start.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, ambivalent. Mortgage rates are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, April 27-28, 2010.

Posted by Rick Bosl on March 16, 2010 | Tags: FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 1-day meeting today, its second of the year. 

The FOMC has held the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent since December 16, 2008, and the voting members of the Fed are expected to vote “no change” again today.

However, no change in the Fed Funds Rate doesn’t necessarily mean no change in mortgage rates.  This is because the Fed Funds Rate is a different interest rate from the rates home buyers get from a loan officer. 

• Fed Funds Rate : Short-term rate at which banks borrow from each other
• Mortgage Rate : Long-term rate of interest a homeowner pays on a mortgage

Mortgage rates are more responsive to what the Fed says as compared to what the Fed does. 

After each FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co issue a formal press release to the markets.  At roughly 400 words, the statement is a brief commentary on the strengths, weaknesses, and threats for the U.S. economy.

Wall Street watches the statement with great interest and this is why mortgage rates are often volatile on the days of an FOMC adjournment. One mention of a word like “inflation” and traders rush to dump their mortgage bond positions.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

After the Fed’s last meeting in January, it told us that the economy had “weakened further”, led by steep declines both in housing and employment. Global demand was off, too.  The negative tone of the Fed’s statement caused mortgage rates to fall to near an all-time low.

This month, expect a less gloomy message.

Since January, there’s been a modest rebound in housing, employment appears more stable, and Retail Sales just posted huge gains.  If the Fed alludes to improvement in any or all three, mortgage rates will likely reverse and zoom higher.

We can’t know what the Fed today will say so if you’re floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe approach would be to do it today, prior to 2:15 PM ET.

Posted by Rick Bosl on March 16, 2010 | Tags: FOMC

Home maintenance is an ongoing project. There’s always something to do around the house, or something to fix. The problem is, you may not have the time, or the skills, to get it done yourself.

In this 4-minute piece from The Today Show on NBC, you’ll see some projects are quite simple.

Dubbed “15-Minute Fixes”, see how simple it can be to handle 3 common household chores:

1. De-alcification of a shower head
2. Clearing hair from the inside of a bathroom drain
3. Sealing a granite counter-top

Each clean-up job is cheap, quick, and can be handled sans handyman. As Spring Fever sets in, put these fixes on your To-Do List.

Posted by Rick Bosl on March 15, 2010 | Tags: DIY

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 12th straight month last month as 1 in every 418 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.

It’s a small improvement from January and a just 6 percent increase over February 2009.

On a per-capita basis, foreclosure density varied by state:

• Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 102 homes
• Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
• Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
• California : 1 foreclosure filing per 195 homes

Also, as in January 2010, foreclosures across the country were concentrated. 10 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average; 40 states fell below. Like everything else is real estate, it seems, foreclosures are local.

For today’s home buyers, foreclosures represent an interesting opportunity. 

Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes. It’s one reason why distressed home sales account for 38 percent of all resales. However, less expensive doesn’t always mean less costly.  A foreclosed home may be in various stages of disrepair and they’re often sold as-is, as policy.

Buying new or used can be cheaper than buying broken-down.

Therefore, if you’re in the market for a bank-owned home, make sure you know what you’re buying before you sign a contract. Have qualified professionals review and inspect the property, as needed. Damage to pipes or the property’s structure, for example, may not be so obvious on a walk-though and you’ll want to know about it before you buy.

Also, foreclosed homes are federal tax credit-eligible. Buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010.

Posted by Rick Bosl on March 11, 2010 | Tags: Foreclosures